. A new study by researchers from Brown and Tufts universities suggests that researchers have been overlooking how two key human responses to climate, how much land people choose to farm, and the number of crops they plant, will impact food production in the future. The researchers used variations in temperature and precipitation across the state over an eight-year period to estimate the sensitivity of the region’s agricultural production to climate change. Those historical comparisons can help in making predictions about the sensitivity of agriculture to future climate change. The study found that, if the patterns from 2002 to 2008 hold in the future, an increase in average temperature in Mato Grosso of just 1 degree Celsius will lead to a nine to 13 percent reduction in overall production of soy and corn. Most studies of this kind look only at the extent to which climate shocks affect crop yield—the amount of product harvested from a given unit of agricultural land. But by only looking at that single variable, researchers can miss critical dynamics that can affect overall output.
AuthorHigh school student in pursuit of a career in Environmental Science Archives
March 2016
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